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It is 7pm, and I am sitting in Muncy, PA making $55/hr for playing with my phone. Since this offends my work ethics, its time for a post.

I still expect gold to skyrocket and then plunge. However, new developments have changed the playing field.

With the printing of mammouth amounts of currency to pay for our congressapos; historic largess, the overall value of a single dollar is shrinking. Against other currencies it is rising because they are falling faster, IMHO.

So gold will begin to rise in value. Its value is a constant against which currency may be guaged. The spike and drop is yet to come, barring any actual intelligent response.

The thing that gets me is, why? Why the Drama? Why the manipulative idiocy? Who does it serve?

The classic view would be to accuse the presidency, but that doesnapos;t make sense. Bush gains nothing from this, as he is gone in a few months. His cabinet? They lose money and power from this, not the reverse.

Conservatives blame democratic congressional manipulations, but I donapos;t think theyapos;re the initiators of this, even if they did make the whole thing possible.

Follow my line of reasoning, and see if you can spot any major flaws.

4 months ago, I spoke to a small gaggle of reporters on this very issue, although none would print what I said. They were more interested in one-liners. The gist of my argument at the time was, apos;the money is gone.apos;

Rising fuel costs increased the cost of earning money for everyone. It was a single product inflation. Taking this money out of the economy overbalanced the market. And like dominoes, investment institutions began to fall.

First came homeowners defaulting on Mortgages. This strained Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac. This drove down confidence in the housing market, which folded overextended lenders and investment firms. Which weakened institutional credit, which caused banks to fail. And here we are.

But it all started with the commodities market, a black hole of information. We have no data on how the price was driven up so far beyond reason. The trades are largely unreported. But it is entirely possible that one group of investors coordinated their efforts to create the oil panic that ensued. Just buy up a few billion dollars in futures, and it looks like thereapos;s not enough to go around.

Thatapos;s what I think, not what I know.

I do know this, though... In the end, many things will have to happen to balance this all out. As prices fall further below $70/barrel, producers will begin to take action. Production cuts wonapos;t work, unless they are very drastic. If they do raise the cost of fuel back to $100/barrel, we collapse as a nation. We just donapos;t have the money.

More likely is a move by Russia to threaten the Georgia Pipeline, or by Iran to threaten Iraq or Turkey or Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. This drives up Oil on fears of a supply break. America responds because we must. Arabs are galvanized against us, and we have a shooting war. Again.

If not war, then withdrawal and suffering here at home. We pull out of our military commitments, and lick our wounds. I donapos;t see this happening, although it is possible.

But without us, there is no Taiwan. Or South Korea. Or Japan. Or Iraq. Or UN. Or Georgia. All gone.

You figure it out after that.

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